by Dombo » Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:46 am
[quote="Bo-Gilly"]Makes you wonder why banks from the wealthy Eurozone countries such as France and Germany were happy to lend them all that money, eh Paul ?
Such breathtaking incompetence is quite staggering.
A good point Bo-gilly, and one that goes to the heart of the nonsense that is the Eurozone.
The euro project is based on the same barking insanity as the comprehensive education system, namely that the lazy and stupid will somehow rise to the level of the best in class rather than being disruptive and dragging everybody down to the lowest common denominator.
Banks lend to governments by buying their bonds. In the mid-90s when countries had their own currencies interest rates and yields reflected the relative economic strength and probability of default of those countries. Germany, France and the Netherlands had strong economies, strong currencies and low yields on their bonds, while the Club Med countries’ bonds denominated in Drachma, Lira, Pesetas and Escudos had high yields. The Irish punt was pretty much pegged to sterling and Irish bond yields reflected those of the UK.
Once the timetable for monetary union had been decided, the fact that all countries would have the same interest rate and currency gave investors and banks an effectively riskless but profitable trade – buy the high-yielding countries’ bonds and watch their value rise as their interest rates converged towards the lowest, that of the mighty German economic powerhouse. Now France, having seen the sharp end of German expansionism, was keen to have as many other countries in the project as well, in order to keep the Germans in check. Stability and Growth criteria were relaxed to allow the weaker countries to join and so the euro was born.
Now, an interesting but fatal rule of banking relates to use of capital. A bank making a loan to you or I must allow for the possibility of default, so must set aside capital to allow for that, usually 100%. Lend to another bank and the capital set aside is only 20%; lend to a government by buying its bonds and these assets require no set aside; in bankers’ terms they are zero risk weighted. The banks can therefore buy as many of these bonds as they can afford, often borrowing to do so. If regulators say something is zero risk, why argue?
Banking at its most basic is borrowing low and lending high. Pay 2% on deposit accounts and lend out at 6%. Therefore lending to Italy and Greece was entirely rational for the banks, and the greater the investment the better. For them.
As Barings found in 1995, blow a £827 million hole in your balance sheet and you have a problem; blow a £50 billion hole and it becomes someone else’s.